THE BEGINNING OF THE END?

 

The above photographs were taken during Trump’s appearance at the annual Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) at the beginning of March this year. They only begin to depict the unhinged and incoherent stream of consciousness that he displayed in a speech lasting over two hours, which included over a hundred falsehoods, misstatements and outright lies. Of course, it was accepted by the attendees with applause and enthusiasm. Such is the state of the Trump presidency today.

On the other side of the coin is the above graphic, which appeared in Gerry Meandering in March 2017, summarizing the highlights of the speech that Steve Bannon delivered at CPAC two years ago, just after Trump had assumed office. As you will see, Bannon set forth the direction of the Trump administration, which it has largely followed. Unfortunately it illustrates that there is method to Trump’s madness

So the situation we now face is that the people who set out to achieve the goals of the Trump administration are getting what they wanted: reduced and impaired  government; withdrawal from world leadership (every nation for itself); diminished influence and distrust of the national media; and tariffs and trade wars. But the fact is that those people are not the majority of Trump’s base. The very wealthy and powerful people and businesses are the ones who are benefiting. (See the just-released Trump budget for 2020, which increases the military budget by a record-breaking amount and makes major cuts to social programs, including healthcare and education.)

The blue-collar, less-educated, less-affluent  and less-informed people, who form the majority of the Trump base, actually suffer from the Trump policies, which result in less government assistance, higher prices, poorer access to healthcare and, in the case of immigrants and most minorities, more fear and danger in their lives. However, since they live in Trumpland and listen to Fox, the news they hear was recently described by Jane Mayer in The New Yorker as  “a non-stop counter-narrative in which the only collusion is between Hillary Clinton and Russia; Robert Mueller, the special counsel, is perpetrating a ‘coup’ by the ‘deep state’; Trump and his associates aren’t corrupt, but America’s law enforcement officials are; illegal immigration isn’t at a fifteen year low, it’s ‘an invasion’ and news organizations that offer different perspectives are ‘enemies of the American people’”

So we are faced with two issues. First, we have an unstable president, who is unfit to hold the office, based on his mental condition and his known criminality both prior to and during his presidency – but who has found a way to exercise extraordinary power in office. Second, that this impaired president has a base which consists of two wildly disparate groups: a small but very powerful array of rich and powerful supporters who know, but don’t give a damn, that he is a corrupt, unstable and dangerous person – as long as they get what they want; and a much larger group, living in fox-induced Trumpland,  who love him because they think, misguidedly, that he is doing great things for them – and revel that he is sticking it to the elites in Washington.

Against all this there is another factor – that since the beginning of the Trump era, things have happened that would have been unthinkable pre-Trump. This started on day one with the claims of crowd size at the inauguration. Then there was the Flynn firing. Then giving classified information to the Russians. Then Comey. Then “Little Rocket Man” and Fire and Fury. Then believing Putin over the CIA. To say nothing about insulting most of our allies and cozying up to dicatators and falling in love with Kim Jong-un. Also overriding the intelligence agencies and granting security clearances to Jared and Ivanka. And those are just a few of the things that come quickly to my memory.

But in recent weeks the situation has changed. First, the Democrats won control of the House and are now using their power of investigation, which has led to the Michael Cohen testimony, which uncovered many new avenues to pursue. Also three of Trump’s key campaign promises  have fallen apart: the breakdown of the North Korea talks; the Congressional rejection of funding for the wall; and the huge increase both in the national debt and deficit. Them there were the signed Trump payoff checks to Cohen. Then Manafort and Roger Stone and Trump going off the rails at CPAC – and there are probably a few other new things because I haven’t had my television on for two hours!

While it is difficult to see how this ever-accelerating downward spiral of the Trump presidency can last for another two years, it is also difficult to see how it can come to a quick end. So, clearly, the first thing is to make sure that, if Trump is still President in November 2020, he doesn’t get reelected. Despite the constant chattering voices on CNN and MSNBC warning that Democrats, by moving towards the dreaded socialism, will lose the election, I don’t think that will happen, First, the Democrats won nearly nine million more votes than the Republicans in the recent mid-term elections and I don’t see anything that Trump or the Republicans have yet done to change this math in their favor. As far as moving too far to the left is concerned,  remember that the Republicans won their big victories, not by moving to the center, but by moving to the extreme right.

There is a very diverse and impressive slate of Democratic presidential candidates, but even the furthest left of them are not remotely socialist, which is the label the Republicans are trying to pin on them. Socialism is an economic and political system where the ways of making a living are owned by society as a whole, so that the value made belongs to everyone in that society, rather than by private owners. So even Bernie Sanders, who calls himself a Democratic Socialist, is far from advocating true socialism.

What Sanders and the other left-leaning Democrats want – quicker action to protect the planet from climate change; universal health care; a higher minimum wage; affordable education; and higher taxes on the super-rich – are good goals that are unrealistic only in that they are not achievable in today’s political environment. While they will not end up being the platform of the Democratic party going into the 2020 election, they will prompt healthy debate among Democrats  and will  influence that platform, In fact, this has already been illustrated by Senator Schumer’s recent announcement that climate change will be an important part of the democratic message for 2020, whereas it was not a major Democratic issue in either 2016 or 2018. So, rather than being a negative, I believe that this diversity of candidates and viewpoints will result in a very strong Democratic nominee in 2020 running on a program proposing meaningful and achievable policies that will help real working people as well as moving towards restoring America’s role in the world.

Of course, Trump will not take any of this lying down and is already using distortion and outright lies . For example, when Ilhan Omar, the newly-elected Democratic Muslim Representative from Minnesota, made comments that were widely interpreted as being anti- Semitic, she was severely reprimanded by the Democratic party and issued the following apology: “Anti-Semitism is real and I am grateful for Jewish allies and colleagues who are educating me on the painful history of anti-Semitic tropes. My intention is never to offend my constituents or Jewish Americans as a whole. We have to always be willing to step back and think through criticism, just as I expect people to hear me when others attack me for my identity. This is why I unequivocally apologize. At the same time, I reaffirm the problematic role of lobbyists in our politics, whether it be AIPAC, the NRA or the fossil fuel industry. It’s gone on too long and we must be willing to address it.”

Trump, on the other hand, who said about the KKK marchers in Charlottesville chanting “Jews will not replace us” that “there are very good people on both sides”, has never apologized for that blatently anti-Semitic comment. However, he has recently accused Democrats of being both anti-Israel and anti-Jewish, which is patently false. It is refuted by the make-up of congress – where, in the Senate, there are currently seven Jewish Democratic senators and no Jewish Republican Senators – and, in the House, where there are twenty-four Jewish Democratic Representatives and two Jewish Republican Representatives.

But if recent events are really signaling the beginning of the end for Trump is there a way it can happen short of beating him at the polls?

Unless the Mueller report provides evidence of such serious violations that Republican Senators are willing to stop protecting Trump (and themselves), Nancy Pelosi has taken impeachment off the table, so it is possible but unlikely. Also, the justice department will not indict a sitting president unless the Attorney General changes the rules, which is also highly unlikely. That leaves the Southern District of New York, which seems to be exploring the Racketeering Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act – otherwise known as RICO – a law primarily designed for mafia organizations that engage in corrupt practices such as bank fraud, financial fraud and other similar crimes. It has been pointed out that The Trump organization has engaged in similar activities and, by indicting the Organization, rather than Trump himself, SDNY would in effect be indicting him as its principal owner, as well as the members of his family who are actively involved with it. If they do decide to do this,  it could well lead  to Trump’s resignation, making a deal to avoid prosecution and thus protecting not only himself and his children, but also the Trump brand that is the foundation of his business – and his livelihood – in the post-Trump Era, whenever that begins.