The Great Debate(s)

 

In the past week Trump has been credibly accused of rape, has joked with Vladimir Putin about fake news and Russian interference in the upcoming election, his administration has maintained that it is OK for infants who have been deliberately  separated from their parents to be detained sleeping on cement floors in cages, without soap, toothbrushes or adult care – and we have seen the tragic image of Oscar Alberto Martinez Ramirez of El Salvador – and his not-quite-two-year-old daughter Valeria – lying drowned in the mud of the Rio Grande, which he had tried to swim across in desperation, having been unable to cross the Brownsville & Matamoros International Bridge, where access to the US/Mexico border has been made almost impossible by the Trump administration.

Another week in the Trump era! The new normal. Nothing to get excited about … it’s only American democracy and values that are being destroyed as we watch. That is why the 2020 election is so vital. It will determine whether this destruction of democracy and values passes the point of no return, or whether it can be reversed before it is too late

Meanwhile cable news pundits across the political spectrum have been obsessing about how the most appealing of the twenty Democratic presidential candidates in last week’s debates presented positions so far to the left that, if they won the Democratic nomination, they would be handing the presidency to Trump for another four years. Pundits, including those on MSNBC, have been criticizing the candidates for spending too much time in the debates presenting their liberal positions – and too little time on criticizing Trump – in spite of the fact that they had to respond to questions posed by NBC, MSNBC  and Telemundo, who thus controlled what was discussed.

Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren, who seem to have emerged most favorably from the two debates, both have liberal platforms – Warren’s more so than Harris’. I have heard commentators (as well as my friends) say that if Warren is the Democratic candidate, Trump will win in a landslide – that the party has to move to the center, selecting an “electable” candidate like Biden, to win. I believe this is utter nonsense and that the data and the facts show exactly the opposite. Here’s why.

First, in 2016, the Democrats selected the electable Hillary Clinton over the Democratic Socialist Bernie Sanders – and lost. All the polling data at the time showed that Sanders would have won that election decisively. In 2018, speaking at the Harvard Institute of Politics, Trump’s own pollster, Tony Fabrizio, stated flatly that Sanders would have won. If Sanders would have beaten Trump then, surely Elizabeth Warren, who embraces many of his positions, is younger, a woman of the people with a working class background – who rose to prominence based on her intellect and  persistence, a brilliant debater with thought-out policies on all the issues and a tireless campaigner, can beat him now. I cannot think of one thing that Trump has done to switch Bernie voters to his side since 2016, but I can think of many things he has done to lose support since then (see above images).

Second, when the Democrats selected the electable Al Gore in 2000 they lost, when they should have won. When they selected the electable John Kerry in 2004, they lost when they should have won. When they selected the upstart Barack Obama in 2008 over the electable Hillary Clinton they won over the electable centrist John McCain and again in 2012 over the electable centrist Mitt Romney. In 2016 the Republicans selected the outsider Donald Trump over sixteen other more electable and mostly more centrist candidates and won. (Trump turned out to be further to the right than anyone knew, because, seeking a winning political philosophy, he assembled a leadership council of extreme conservatives and has adopted their desires as his program on a continuing basis. For more information click on the following link: https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/trump-leadership-council-members-full-list-848274/)

It is still a long time before the 2020 election. The first debates revealed a Democratic field of very capable candidates, at least ten of whom I would be happy to have as president (and all of whom I would vote for over Trump). Unless there is outside influence (which we cannot underestimate, particularly in view of Trump’s cozy and mysterious relationship with Putin), I rate the chances for a Democratic victory in 2020 very high. Trump continues to poll at around 42% – way below any of his potential opponents.  But the need for everyone to get and stay involved is paramount. Campaign, demonstrate, run for office. Do something!

Just don’t stand in the middle of the road. It’s the way to get run over.