Our Next President

 

After the CNN debates this week, the media is abuzz with who’s up and who’s down in the race for the democratic nomination for president. There is concern that the leading candidate may be past his prime, and that no other candidate stands out. Primaries are a messy way of picking presidential candidates, but, since we have a group of very well-qualified people to choose from, in my view, it is turning out to be a healthy one. Here is my assessment of the likely finalists.

Joe Biden is not my choice. I feel he is past his prime. However, he is generally favored to win. Polls show him 10 points ahead of Trump in a head-to-head match-up and way ahead of the other candidates. I feel he will beat Trump if he ends up getting the nomination and will be an effective president.

Elizabeth Warren: My choice. I feel she is above everyone else in terms of her thought out positions, her clarity in explaining them, her unflappability, her forceful debating style and her intellect. She is steadily gaining ground and has a good chance of beating Biden in the critical Iowa caucuses; because she has a much stronger ground organization there than he does, which could give her the momentum to pass him – if she hasn’t already done so by February 3^rd next year, when the Iowa primary occurs.

Pete Buttigieg: Great candidate, Very good positions and an articulate way of explaining them. Rhodes scholar. Served in Afghanistan.  Mayor. But it may be too soon for a gay man. Could well end up on the ticket as Vice President.

Bernie Sanders: Not my choice. Too old. Would have beaten Trump in 2016, if he had been the candidate (according to Trump’s leading 2016 pollster) and would also do so in 2020. Would be an OK president but would have difficulty making the necessary compromises to get much accomplished.

Kamala Harris: Another strong contender. Would be a good president. Forceful debater. Management skills. Very smart.

Cory Booker: Would be a great president, but is having difficulty gaining traction, Also a Rhodes scholar. Mayor of Newark. Senator. May have broken through in the debate though early polls don’t indicate it.

I think at least 15 of the democratic candidates would be good presidents, but that the ones I haven’t mentioned don’t have a chance. Many will be forced to drop out, because they will not meet the much stricter requirements for the next debate in September.

The good news is that at the end of the primary process one strong candidate and ticket will emerge. There will be a unified vision for the future; including such things as universal healthcare vs. no healthcare, restoration of America’s values and leadership and  immigration and taxation reform. But, in the meantime, the media will continue to stir things up to improve their ratings, so the horse-race hype – and all the doom and gloom – will continue. This will be amplified by Trump and his cronies to promote the perception that they are on the winning side, which, at this stage of the race, they are not.

This is not an ordinary election, where the current news and the positions of the candidates change the views of the electorate. For the past 18 months the polls have consistently shown Trump’s base at 42 to 44% and those who say they will not vote for him at around 54%. I think this is pretty much locked in because Trump’s whole campaign is directed to his base. Remember that in 2018 the Democrats received nine million more votes than the Republicans in the House elections. This included strong gains in the critical Electoral College states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, which Trump won in 2016 by a total of approximately seventy-eight thousand votes. I can’t think of a single thing he has done since then to move any of those nine million voters to his side.

So my view is that there are only three ways that Trump can win in 2020.

First, he will try to tear down whoever his final opponent is to his 42-44% approval level – as he did in 2016, aided by the Russians, by creating Hillary-hatred and making the choice seem to be for the lesser of two evils. The Russians are still very active in the social media space, but will  not be as easily able to fly under the radar this time as they were in 2016, And Trump is already trying to discredit the whole Democratic Party with his attacks on Elijah Cummings, the black chairman of the House Oversight Committee, and “The Squad” of four newly-elected minority congresswomen. When the final candidate is selected, his campaign, again aided by the Russians, will be devoted to tearing that person down. If he is successful, the question is whether he can cause enough never-Trump voters to stay home and not vote. I doubt it.

Second, there will probably be attempts at direct intervention into our election systems by the Russians and perhaps other nations, which, if effective, could distort the vote (but not necessarily in Trump’s favor if by China or Iran).

Third, if he loses the election by a close enough margin, Trump might use his control of the senate, the justice department and the supreme court to challenge the result as being rigged and try to get the results overturned.

We are certainly experiencing the Chinese curse “May you live in interesting times.” However, since there is no record that the curse actually originated in China, at least Trump won’t be able to subject it to a tariff!