America Last

In his famous 1974 speech “The Shining City upon a Hill”, President Ronald Reagan said “We cannot escape our destiny, nor should we try to do so. The leadership of the free world was thrust upon us two centuries ago in that little hall in Philadelphia. In the days following World War ll, when the economic strength and power  of America was all that stood between the world and the return to the dark ages, Pope Pius Xll said ‘The American people have a great genius for splendid and unselfish actions. Into the hands of America God has placed the destinies of an afflicted mankind’. We are indeed, and we are today, the last best hope of man on earth.”

Last week, in a speech in Vietnam at the start of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, Donald Trump – the current occupant of The White House – said “We are not going to let the United States be taken advantage of anymore. I am always going to put America first, the same way I expect all of you in this room to put your countries first.” He might just as well have said “You’re on our own and so are we. We’re turning the lights out.”

It is difficult to overstate the significance of the difference between these two speeches, both in terms of the practical results that America’s withdrawal from leadership of the free world will have on the future of the US, and in its impact on the psyche of the American people. Whether you call it American exceptionalism or something else, America is a special place. FDR’s four freedoms – of speech and of worship; and from want and from fear – are at the root of the American way of life. They foster the spirit  and can-do attitude that set the USA apart from other nations – and that have enabled us to exercise moral leadership in the free world.

Unfortunately, Trump seems to have no concept of these values – the only value he understands is money – so, in putting America first monetarily, and retreating from world leadership in every other way, he is unwittingly throwing out the baby with the bathwater. And, unfortunately, Trump’s retreat from world leadership is already far more than just words. Let’s look at the record.

Climate change: America has withdrawn from the Paris climate accords, of which Obama was the architect. Syria signed on last week, so America is now the only country in the world that is not a party to the agreement.

NAFTA: Negotiations to change the North American Free Trade Agreement are underway. There is a good chance that Canada and Mexico will not agree to the major changes America is demanding and that the agreement will be terminated.

TPP: Trump pulled America out of the Trans Pacific Partnership, an agreement among twelve Asian nations to strengthen their combined bargaining position versus China. America was the key sponsor and member. However, the remaining eleven nations are continuing with the agreement on their own under the new name “Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for the Trans Pacific Partnership” (CPTPP). Tom Friedman  recently said that, in pulling out, “Trump simply threw away the single most valuable tool America had for shaping the geo-economic future of the region our way and for pressuring China to open markets. ….. It is difficult to think of anything more stupid.” He quoted a senior Hong Kong official “When Trump did away with TPP, all your allies’ confidence in the US collapsed”.

Iran: Trump has refused to ratify that Iran has continued to honor the  agreement that prevents Iran from developing nuclear weapons,  and has thrown the future of America’s participation in the agreement into doubt. This is not only a deal between Iran and the US. It also includes China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany and the European Union. If we pull out, they will remain and, again, America will be on its own.

North Korea: America has moved three aircraft carriers into the Korean Peninsula in a show of force against North Korea. Meanwhile, Trump continues to taunt Kim Jong-un with tweets (the latest calling him “Short and fat”). A general recently estimated the chances of war in that region at 51%.

Russia: Trump continues his weird refusal to say anything negative about Putin – or to take any actions to counter the ongoing campaign by Russia to weaken America – both internationally and domestically. He says he believes that Putin does not think Russia interfered with the election, putting Putin’s word over the entire US intelligence community, which apparently has proof that Putin directed it. On Trump’s current Asian trip he has called the recent leaders of the FBI and the CIA “Political hacks”. When you look at Trump’s words about Russia  and the number of people around him with Russian connections, is it too far-fetched to wonder whether he could be “The Manchurian Candidate”?

Immigration: Trump’s reductions in the number of legal immigrants allowed into the US, plus his aggressive deportation actions and his emphasis on keeping people out, has changed the world’s view of America from welcoming to hostile.

The State Department: Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is gutting the State department, supposedly in the name of efficiency.  Many of the most valuable senior career veterans, who have detailed knowledge and language fluency in key areas of the world, have left in disgust. Those that remain have been shut out of the loop. As many as forty ambassador positions have still not been filled (including the ambassador to South Korea). The sanctions office has been closed and the new sanctions against Russia that were passed in the Senate – and reluctantly signed by Trump in July – have not been implemented. Trump has said that, in foreign policy “I am the only person that counts”. Not only does Tillerson appear to be acting on that basis, but his twenty-plus year relationship with Putin begins to look more and more suspicious, in light of the new connections between the Trump campaign/administration and Russia that seem to surface on a daily basis.

BREAKING NEWS: Today it is reported that a no-bid $2.8 million contract for security at  the US Embassy in Moscow, and consulates in St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg and Vladivostok, has been awarded to a Russian company closely linked to KGB figure Viktor Budanov, who was Putin’s boss when he was a K.G.B. agent, and subsequently became head of Soviet counterintelligence.

The net result of all of these situations – as well as others I have not mentioned – such as China, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Turkey and Spain – is that the world is now looking elsewhere for leadership. While America is retreating, China and Russia are advancing. China is investing billions of dollars to reach its avowed goal of world leadership. And the fraught alliance between China and Russia is unified in one goal – diminishing America.

Meanwhile, the effect of America’s withdrawal from leadership is having other less tangible, but equally negative, effects. America’s newly perceived hostility to foreigners means that less tourists want to visit our shores. The best and the brightest students will look elsewhere for their careers. (Already, since Trump’s election, fewer foreign students are enrolling in US colleges.)  More Americans will be disaffected  and will look to emigrate.

Our withdrawal or renegotiation efforts regarding NAFTA, TPP, the Paris climate accords and Iran will make it far more difficult for the U.S. to make agreements with other countries, who will have good reason to believe that we will not honor them.

In short, “America First” is fast becoming “America Last” in the eyes of the world – and the longer this goes on the more difficult it will be to stop and reverse. Unfortunately, even if Trump is removed, there is little reason to believe that it will be reversed by Pence, although he may restore some of the norms of government by appointing qualified people to head departments. However, while he may be able to enact even more extreme right wing policies domestically , we can at least hope that Pence might bring some sanity to our foreign relationships.

The urgency now is to stop America’s rush into isolation as quickly as possible, We can’t just live in hope that somehow Trump will be removed and that his successor will be better. The only thing we can do is to elect a Democratic House and Senate in 2018, in order to control key cabinet appointments. In short, the only way to get the lights back on is by electing people who know where the light switch is.